Cassava Informatics Dashboard · Dept. of Agronomy

LIVE

ENSO Loading NOAA… · SUPPLY Output recovering 2025 · CMD ongoing 27 provinces · PRICE THB 3.10–3.30/kg · chips USD 180–220/t · OUTLOOK 2025: 26.8–27.1M t · 2026: +10–12% La Niña · 2027: −2.5% · CHIP Exports rebound 2025e +6–9% · starch +0.6–2.6% · CLMV competition rising · ENSO Loading NOAA… · SUPPLY Output recovering 2025 · CMD ongoing 27 provinces · PRICE THB 3.10–3.30/kg · chips USD 180–220/t · OUTLOOK 2025: 26.8–27.1M t · 2026: +10–12% La Niña · 2027: −2.5% · CHIP Exports recovering 2025 · chips +6–9% · CLMV competition rising ·

Production & Yield · 2015–2028F

■ El Niño ■ Normal ■ Forecast OAE · Krungsri 2025–27

Exports · Prices · Market Share

Export volume by product · M tonnes

2025 export breakdown (est.)

Product	Mt	YoY

Fresh Root · Farm Gate

2.50

THB/kg · Q4 2025 (25% starch)

Native Starch Export

440–450

USD/t · Thailand Q3 2025

Cassava Chips Export

180–220

USD/t · recovering 2025–26

Modified Starch

700–900

USD/t · 3–4× chip premium

Key price rules: Fresh root prices penalize starch content below 22%. Harvest at >24% starch (typically Nov–Feb) for best gate prices. La Niña supply = lower prices 2025–26 (THB 1.70–2.50). If 2027 El Niño develops, prices recover to THB 2.20–2.50/kg. Source: OAE · Krungsri 2025–2027 · IMARC Group

Fresh root price · THB/kg · 2019–2026f

2024 avg THB 2.33/kg (OAE) · peaked 3.30 (supply shortage) · easing to 1.70–2.20 range 2025–26 as La Niña boosts output · Source: Krungsri 2025–2027

Competitor grains · USD/t · 2020–Q3 2025

China switches to cassava when corn expensive. Watch USDA WASDE corn stock monthly. Source: World Bank Pink Sheet

Export destinations 2025e

China dependency by product

China remains 73% of exports (2025e). Chip exports recovering as Chinese corn prices rise. Native starch demand resilient in food/pharma. Modified starch gaining in Japan, Taiwan, Indonesia.

Climate Intelligence · Khorat Plateau

Live ocean–atmosphere indices · Khorat weather · seasonal forecasts · cassava impact

🌏 Full KU·CCI Seasonal Dashboard ↗

ENSO/ONI

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MJO Phase

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IOD

Neutral

Watch Apr–Sep

Khorat Rain

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14-day total

GRACE Soil

~35th

%ile NE Thai

Monsoon

May 18

±5 d MJO-adj.

ONI Forecast + Cassava Yield Impact · 9 months

NOAA CPC · APCC multi-model plume · yield response weighted by crop growth stage

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Khorat Rainfall · 16-day forecast

15.5°N 103°E · Open-Meteo live

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What the Forecast Means for Rainfed Cassava · Isan 2026

Full KU·CCI Dashboard ↗

☔ RAINFALL

Good news: ECMWF SEAS5 + ASMC MME both show near-to-above normal rainfall for Isan Jun–Sep 2026. La Niña / neutral ENSO supports adequate root-fill moisture for rainfed crops.

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📅 PLANTING WINDOW

Monsoon onset Isan ~May 18 ±5 days (MJO-adjusted). IOD neutral — no suppression signal. Plant 5–7 days after confirming rains. Soil moisture recovering but still below normal — mulch at planting to retain moisture.

⚠️ RISK WATCH

CMD (mosaic disease) active in 27 provinces — use DoAE-certified cuttings only. El Niño risk returns 2027 (50–60% JJA 2027) — plan area expansion now, hold back for 2027. Flash flood risk rises on Khorat slopes Jul–Aug.

💰 PRICE SIGNAL

La Niña supply rebound → prices ease to THB 1.70–2.20/kg through 2026. If El Niño returns 2027 → prices recover to THB 2.20–2.50/kg. Expand area for 2026 harvest, position for 2027 price recovery.

Source: KU·CCI Climate Intelligence · ECMWF SEAS5 · ASMC MME · NMME/NOAA CPC · JMA/TCC · IRI/LDEO · NASA GRACE-FO · Open-Meteo · Krungsri 2025–2027

Farmer & Stakeholder Playbook

Climate-informed decisions · updated with live ENSO

Now:

🌡️ Soil moisture low 💰 Prices high — sell window 📅 Expand area for 2026 🦠 Verify CMD-free cuttings

🌾 Farmers · Khorat Plateau

HOLD PLANTING · Wait for monsoon onset

When to plant5–7 days after first confirming rains. TMD onset ~May 18 ±5 days.

Best varietiesCMR series · Rayong 11 · Kasetsart 50 for dry conditions

Disease riskMosaic disease active 27 provinces. Buy DoAE-certified cuttings only.

Soil careMulch 4–6 cm at planting. Reduces evaporation 40% in dry soil.

🏭 Processors · Starch Mills

SECURE CLMV INPUTS · Lock contracts now

Capacity~45% utilization. Input shortage is the bottleneck — not demand.

SourceCambodia imports (83% of Thai cassava inputs). Lock Apr–Jun.

Pivot to starchNative starch +14.5% vs chips −58%. Shift processing focus.

2026 planLa Niña rebound +10–12%. Begin capex expansion H2 2025.

📦 Exporters · Chips & Starch

PIVOT TO STARCH · Monitor China monthly

Starch growthChina industrial (food/pharma/cosmetics) +7.7%. Indonesia +336%.

Chip 2025–26+6.6–8.6%/yr if corn stays high. 2027 El Niño may reverse.

DiversifyJapan (modified starch 28%), Indonesia, Taiwan — reduce China 99.5% chip dependency.

WatchUSDA WASDE corn stocks monthly. African Swine Fever cycle drives chip demand swings.

🏦 Traders · BAAC Borrowers

HOLD STARCH · Watch El Niño development

Current price (Apr 2026)THB 1.70–2.20/kg — La Niña supply rebound eased prices from 3.30 peak.

El Niño watch signalNOAA: El Niño likely May–Jul (61%). If ONI ≥ +0.5 by Sep, prices recover to 2.20–2.50.

Strategy nowHold modified starch inventory. Price floor near current. Upside comes if El Niño tightens supply Q4 2026.

2027 outlookEl Niño persisting → output −2.5 to −4.5% · prices back to 2.20–2.50 THB · position starch long.

Farmer Finance & Government Support Programs

BAAC loans · government subsidies · cooperative schemes · how to access

🏦 BAAC Harvest Delay Loan

ธ.ก.ส. · Cassava Price Stabilization

Loan amount

Up to THB 50,000/household

Interest rate

1%/yr — government covers the rest

Term

Up to 6 months deferral

Budget

THB 10.79B · 215,000+ farms

Who: Registered cassava farmers with BAAC accounts. Existing BAAC loan holders can apply for repayment extensions. How: Apply at any BAAC branch nationwide. Strategy: Use to delay harvest until starch content exceeds 24% — each 1% starch increment raises gate price ~5–8%.

🌱 BAAC Seasonal Production Loan

Main crop credit · rice + cassava joint

Rate

MRR − 3% (below market)

Security

Joint-liability group (5–30 farmers)

Covers

Seeds · cuttings · fertilizer · labor

Debt relief

NPL suspension · <THB 300,000 total debt

Joint-liability groups: Form a group of 5–15 trusted farmers to access BAAC without land title. Common in NE Thailand for combined rice+cassava production loans. No land title required — group trust is the collateral.

📋 Other Programs & Subsidies

Government · cooperative · BCG scheme

Processor stockpiling subsidy

THB 368M · interest compensation for processors holding cassava chips — creates demand floor at farm gate

Cooperative value-add loans

BAAC loans to farmer cooperatives for chipping machines · reduces per-kg storage cost · increases bargaining power

BAAC–GIZ Climate-Smart Loan

THB 5B credit line at preferential rates for farmers adopting low-emission / climate-smart practices · BCG model

DoAE free certified cuttings

Dept. of Agricultural Extension distributes CMD-free CMR/Rayong certified planting material — apply at local agricultural office

State welfare card farmers

THB 2,000/month supplemental income for 13M welfare card holders — includes many small-scale cassava farmers

Apply / Contact:

BAAC (ธ.ก.ส.) ↗ DoAE · Certified Cuttings ↗ OAE · Market Prices ↗

Source: BAAC Thailand · Dept. Internal Trade · Thailand Business News · GIZ

Risk Register · 2025–2027

Risk	Farmer impact	Timeline	Level
Drought + flooding cycle Output constrained 2025 · CMD active · alternating weather	Yield below 3,200 kg/rai	Now→2025	CRITICAL
Cassava Mosaic Disease 27 provinces · whitefly vector · cutting shortage	Yield loss 20–40% infected plots	Ongoing	CRITICAL
China chip demand collapse −58% peak 2024 · China GMO corn + coal ethanol	Factory closure in chip-only zones	2024–26	HIGH
CLMV competition Cambodia +9.6%/yr · Lao +28.3%/yr	Thai chip price premium erodes	2025–27	MODERATE
EV / ethanol erosion 30% ZEV target 2030 · E85 subsidy removed	Domestic ethanol offtake declining	2026–30	MODERATE
2027 El Niño return Output −2.5 to −4.5% · CMD re-escalates	Input costs spike	2027	WATCH

3-Year Outlook · 2025–2027

Year	Production	YoY	Root price	Climate driver	Signal
2025e	28.0–29.0M t	+5.0 to +7.0%	1.70–2.20 THB	La Niña onset · CMD persists · recovery	EXPAND AREA
2026f	29.0–30.0M t	+1.6 to +3.6%	1.70–2.20 THB	La Niña / neutral · exports +9.5–11.5% · chips rebound	BUY INPUTS NOW
2027f	27.8–28.7M t	−1.5 to −3.5%	2.20–2.50 THB	El Niño return · CMD pests · export −13–15%	WATCH
2028f	26.9–27.8M t	−1.5 to −3.5%	2.20–2.50 THB	El Niño · CLMV competition · corn substitution	HEDGE

Signal confidence · below-normal supply bias 2025