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Climate Indicators
ENSO Phase
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Consensus
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Monsoon Onset
~Jun 14
±5 day uncertainty
GRACE NE Thai
P28
Root-zone · below normal
Ocean–Atmosphere Indices
Niño 3.4 · ONI
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IOD
+0.1
Neutral / Watch
MJO Phase
5–6
Suppressed · SEA
Seasonal Forecast Maps
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Synthesized Outlook
Central Thailand
7 AGENCIES
Multi-model consensus · Department of Agronomy · KU Bangkok
70–85%
of normal rainfall
~Jun 14
Monsoon onset est.
+0.8°C
Above-normal temp
Pre-Monsoon · April–MayBELOW NORMAL
Rainfall forecast at 65–80% of normal over the Chao Phraya basin. Five of seven models agree on suppression from active MJO phases 5–6 and weakened Bay of Bengal moisture flux. Temperatures running 0.5–1.0°C above normal elevate evapotranspiration, compounding soil moisture depletion before the planting season.
Monsoon Onset RiskLATE RISK
ECMWF SEAS5 and JMA both flag a 5–10 day late onset for Central Thailand vs the June 10–15 climatological mean. Probability of onset before June 10 is only 25–30%. Late onset in analog years (2014, 2019) correlated with reduced early rice transplanting success in Suphan Buri, Sing Buri, and Ang Thong.
Seasonal Total · Apr–Jun42–50% PROB.
Multi-model consensus places below-normal probability at 42–50% for Central Thailand. ASMC confirms near-normal to below-normal for mainland SEA with below-normal for northwestern parts. IRI/LDEO estimates 40% probability of rainfall below the 30th percentile. Signal is moderate but directionally consistent across all agencies.
Reservoir & Water StatusMONITOR
Bhumipol at 45%, Sirikit at 52% capacity — below the 5-year average of 58–65%. Royal Irrigation Dept has reduced dry-season release allocations. Plan irrigation conservatively; prioritize drought-tolerant rice varieties for the first planting cycle in the Central Plains.
Soil Moisture · GRACE-FODRY · P28
NASA GRACE-FO root-zone soil moisture: NE Thailand (Khorat Plateau) at the 28th wetness percentile — confirmed dry. This satellite-derived, gauge-independent indicator corroborates the below-normal precipitation signal from all seasonal models. Cassava transplant stress risk is elevated.
JJA Outlook UncertaintyWATCH
JMA places El Niño development probability at 60% by June–August. If confirmed, July–September rainfall over Central Thailand could deteriorate to 75–90% of normal. Critical decision window: ECMWF and APCC updates on the 15th–16th of each month.
Model Confidence · Below-Normal Signal
Agency Verdicts · Central Thailand